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ecently, when asked which player they’d want to take the last shot with the game on line, 88 percent of the 26 players who participated in an http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9829550/lebron-james-gets-mixed-reviews-poll-peers picked Michael Jordan, with Kobe Bryant receiving the other 12 percent. LeBron James? A big, fat 0.
Are these players right? Is Jordan the King of Clutch? Does LeBron fold in the highest of pressure situations? Let’s stop with the narratives that media and fans love to create and instead look at what actually happens on the court. This exercise will focus solely on determining who’s the most clutch shooter in the playoffs – the most meaningful and highest pressure games possible — with stats. Here we go:
Final Seconds of a Playoff Game
Here are their stats when taking a potential game-tying or go-ahead shot in the final 24 seconds of the 4th quarter or overtime in playoff games.
And here are the stats for the same playoff situation, but looking only at the final 10 (not 24) seconds of playoff games.
Credit: ESPN
Here’s another crucial stat, courtesy of http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58575/lebron-james-isnt-clutch-think-again:
Since LeBron came into the league in 2003-04, nobody in the NBA has made more game-tying and go-ahead shots in the final 24 seconds of playoff games than LeBron, who is 7-of-16 on those shots. His 43.8 field goal percentage on those clutch shots ranks the best in the NBA since his rookie season among players with at least 10 attempts. The league average is 28.3 percent on those shots.
Credit: ESPN
Analysis: Based on these playoff definitions of clutch, Jordan is the overwhelming best, making 47%+ of his attempts. For shots of this magnitude, that is an amazing percentage and a testament to the perception of Jordan as the ultimate clutch performer. LeBron, with a low-40% clip, trails not too far behind, leaving those who argue that LeBron isn’t clutch with little to base their opinions on. Contrary to popular perception, Kobe shoots the worst of the three, converting under 30% on most accounts. Overall, the league average of 28.3% on shots in the final 24 seconds of these playoff situations indicate that Jordan and LeBron perform well above-average, while Kobe essentially is as likely to drain a playoff game winner as any other player in the league. One must remember that some of these shots are more difficult than others or may have been taken with less than a second remaining, making them extremely difficult to convert. Still, creating the easiest shot possible in a situation, such as a layup, is a skill that should not be punished.
Game 7s and Elimination Games
Being clutch is not simply about making the game-winning shot — there’s really no single way to measure being clutch — but about how you perform when your back’s against the wall, such as in Game 7s or when facing elimination in a series. Let’s see how these three players have performed in both situations:
Game 7s Game 7s PPG FG% RPG APG LeBron 34 46.50% 8.1 3.5 Jordan 33.3 45.70% 7.7 7 Kobe 22.2 38.90% 8 5
When Facing Elimination When Facing Elimination PPG FG% RPG APG LeBron 31.5 46% 10 6.5 Jordan 31.3 44.50% 7.9 7 Kobe 21.5 41.40% 5.8 3.5
Analysis: These three players perform very well in these high stakes playoff games, although LeBron and Jordan perform better than Kobe in virtually every category. LeBron and Jordan also perform above their personal playoff averages in these games, while Kobe underperforms. When it comes to team performance and looking at their win/loss records in these games, all three players are about .500 when facing elimination. But in Game 7s, Kobe’s teams are a remarkable 5-1 while LeBron’s are 2-2 and Jordan’s are 2-1. Kobe clearly trumps them in this regard. A win’s a win, right?
Conclusion:
1. Jordan
2. LeBron
3. Kobe
There’s no single definition of clutch, especially in the playoffs — is it the final seconds? Final minutes? Final game? But when trying to determine who’s the best clutch shooter in the playoffs with varying statistical measurements, as I’ve done here, a clear pattern emerges: Jordan is the clear front-runner, LeBron is far better than most give him credit for, and Kobe is surprisingly worse than most (even I) believe him to be.
It might be argued that LeBron generally takes easier “clutch†shots near the basket, while Kobe and Jordan fill YouTube with highlights of impossible HORSE-esque buzzer beaters. For example, every single Jordan playoff game winning/game tying http://chasing23.com/michael-jordan-game-winning-shots/, except one, was a jumpshot. Most of Kobe’s also appear to be jump shots. Shouldn’t that count for something? Not exactly. At the end of the day, results are what matter. A player like LeBron shouldn’t be penalized for creating an easier shot and, as a result, converting at a higher rate. This isn’t a game of HORSE, it’s about who can deliver the win, however it may be. Perhaps the 26 players whom ESPN polled should be reminded of that.
*Are you convinced by these findings? Is Kobe’s playoff clutch shooting overrated? LeBron’s underrated? Sound off in the comments below.
Are these players right? Is Jordan the King of Clutch? Does LeBron fold in the highest of pressure situations? Let’s stop with the narratives that media and fans love to create and instead look at what actually happens on the court. This exercise will focus solely on determining who’s the most clutch shooter in the playoffs – the most meaningful and highest pressure games possible — with stats. Here we go:
Final Seconds of a Playoff Game
Here are their stats when taking a potential game-tying or go-ahead shot in the final 24 seconds of the 4th quarter or overtime in playoff games.
And here are the stats for the same playoff situation, but looking only at the final 10 (not 24) seconds of playoff games.
Loading…
thesportsquotient.com
Here’s another crucial stat, courtesy of http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58575/lebron-james-isnt-clutch-think-again:
Since LeBron came into the league in 2003-04, nobody in the NBA has made more game-tying and go-ahead shots in the final 24 seconds of playoff games than LeBron, who is 7-of-16 on those shots. His 43.8 field goal percentage on those clutch shots ranks the best in the NBA since his rookie season among players with at least 10 attempts. The league average is 28.3 percent on those shots.
Loading…
thesportsquotient.com
Analysis: Based on these playoff definitions of clutch, Jordan is the overwhelming best, making 47%+ of his attempts. For shots of this magnitude, that is an amazing percentage and a testament to the perception of Jordan as the ultimate clutch performer. LeBron, with a low-40% clip, trails not too far behind, leaving those who argue that LeBron isn’t clutch with little to base their opinions on. Contrary to popular perception, Kobe shoots the worst of the three, converting under 30% on most accounts. Overall, the league average of 28.3% on shots in the final 24 seconds of these playoff situations indicate that Jordan and LeBron perform well above-average, while Kobe essentially is as likely to drain a playoff game winner as any other player in the league. One must remember that some of these shots are more difficult than others or may have been taken with less than a second remaining, making them extremely difficult to convert. Still, creating the easiest shot possible in a situation, such as a layup, is a skill that should not be punished.
Game 7s and Elimination Games
Being clutch is not simply about making the game-winning shot — there’s really no single way to measure being clutch — but about how you perform when your back’s against the wall, such as in Game 7s or when facing elimination in a series. Let’s see how these three players have performed in both situations:
Game 7s Game 7s PPG FG% RPG APG LeBron 34 46.50% 8.1 3.5 Jordan 33.3 45.70% 7.7 7 Kobe 22.2 38.90% 8 5
When Facing Elimination When Facing Elimination PPG FG% RPG APG LeBron 31.5 46% 10 6.5 Jordan 31.3 44.50% 7.9 7 Kobe 21.5 41.40% 5.8 3.5
Analysis: These three players perform very well in these high stakes playoff games, although LeBron and Jordan perform better than Kobe in virtually every category. LeBron and Jordan also perform above their personal playoff averages in these games, while Kobe underperforms. When it comes to team performance and looking at their win/loss records in these games, all three players are about .500 when facing elimination. But in Game 7s, Kobe’s teams are a remarkable 5-1 while LeBron’s are 2-2 and Jordan’s are 2-1. Kobe clearly trumps them in this regard. A win’s a win, right?
Conclusion:
1. Jordan
2. LeBron
3. Kobe
There’s no single definition of clutch, especially in the playoffs — is it the final seconds? Final minutes? Final game? But when trying to determine who’s the best clutch shooter in the playoffs with varying statistical measurements, as I’ve done here, a clear pattern emerges: Jordan is the clear front-runner, LeBron is far better than most give him credit for, and Kobe is surprisingly worse than most (even I) believe him to be.
It might be argued that LeBron generally takes easier “clutch†shots near the basket, while Kobe and Jordan fill YouTube with highlights of impossible HORSE-esque buzzer beaters. For example, every single Jordan playoff game winning/game tying http://chasing23.com/michael-jordan-game-winning-shots/, except one, was a jumpshot. Most of Kobe’s also appear to be jump shots. Shouldn’t that count for something? Not exactly. At the end of the day, results are what matter. A player like LeBron shouldn’t be penalized for creating an easier shot and, as a result, converting at a higher rate. This isn’t a game of HORSE, it’s about who can deliver the win, however it may be. Perhaps the 26 players whom ESPN polled should be reminded of that.
*Are you convinced by these findings? Is Kobe’s playoff clutch shooting overrated? LeBron’s underrated? Sound off in the comments below.