aloui13
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The Main Problem
Most betting sites have a house edge of 5%, or 1.05. This means that initially at the start, you must overcome a 5% house advantage. The odds of you versus the house laid out is:
0.45 - 0.55
We can find the amount that you need to break even by setting this equation and solving for x:
0.45(x) = 0.50
x = 1.111 (repeating decimal)
This means that even though the house edge is 5%, you need to win 11% more than you lose on the same odds in order to break even. This is extremely difficult and almost a statistical impossibility in the long run.
Subscription Fees
In addition to the house edge, in order to gain access to a service you will likely have to pay some type of subscription fee. These prices are usually very exorbitant and even at very high bankroll amounts would have significant affects.
For example, lets assume that a betting service charges $50 a month. This means that if you are starting with $1,000, you are already down to $950, or a 5% loss. To see how this affects the winning rate needed, we can do some math.
0.95 * 0.45 = 0.4275
0.4275(x) = 0.50
x = 1.16959
This means that if you were betting with $1,000 to start, after subscribing to a service like this, you would have to win 16.959% more than you lose on the same odds in order to just break even! People who are starting with much smaller bankrolls have very little chance of earning anything at all. These type of losses compound heavily, so winning 16.959% is much harder than winning 11%.
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One thing that skeptics rightfully ask is why betters need to sell a service if they are successful. The response is usually that they can earn extra money in addition to what they make betting.
While this may appear to be some sound reasoning at first, when examining the nature of betting this is not true in reality. Betting is not just a zero sum game, but a negative sum game, and the more people you have betting on the same thing, the worse the odds will become. If someone could truly accurately predict the outcomes with enough success to generate consistent profits, they would strongly dilute these profits if others bet on the same things as them. Especially with bets on smaller types of matches, this effect can be extremely significant.
Betters may also claim that they need to sell a service due to limits. Actually, limits show another problem with betting in the first place.
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Sportsbooks can limit you at any time for any reason. Even generating profit for a short period of time can get you limited or even outright banned from the platform sometimes. Sportsbooks for the most part only want you to lose. Even though with their edge they could still make money if there were a few winners, they are quick to ban or limit players who they feel may be earning too much.
This means that betting can never be a long term plan because even if you actually do win you can be limited. Even if the potential to make profit is there, it means very little if you are limited to $10 to $20 at a time and are earning a few dollars per bet.
The Time Aspect
Another problem with betting is you have to be constantly engaged and ready to bet quickly. Some bets can lockout within a few seconds or odds can shift dramatically. Always needing to be at the phone or computer during games during live calls can be stressful and takes focus away from other activities where real earnings can be made. Some games are played very late at night and to bet on them you would have to give up sleeping. All of this for a high chance of losing logically makes little sense in the long run.
Odds
The odds that many betters post often aren't available, or if so are locked out early on. Spreadsheets can make it appear that a better has profited but odds should be examined carefully. A 1.40x rate may not look much different than 1.45x, but due to compounding these can make a difference as much as 50% in total profit sometimes. Thus, beware that even though a better's spreadsheet may be in accordance to what they have bet throughout the months, they may put odds on there that were only shortly available or which didn't exist to begin with.
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Many betters will become defensive easily and automatically accuse you of sales trashing if you attempt to ask legitimate questions about the service. In most services that work in actuality, you should be able to get a key grasp on how things work and a real response to profits and losses. It doesn't make sense to pay money for something where people are always hiding things. Many betting Discords are known to delete messages, make fake odds, or engage in toxic arguments with their own customers while refusing to answer basic questions.
It all really comes down to mathematics. If someone is unwilling to demonstrate those principles and hide behind emotions or deflection, you shouldn't trust it.
What does it all mean?
Betting should not be seen as a way to make consistent money. In the long run 99% of betters probably lose money due to the zero sum (actually negative sum) nature of the game.
Furthermore, to win and make income, it means someone else has to lose. There are many ways to make money where this is not an absolute necessity.
Is it a good development that you can bet online with cryptocurrency and no ID? Yes, freedom is important, and you should be able to spend your money without the government dictating how so. However, based on mathematical reasons and the logics of making money, you should never get involved with betting or gambling.
Augur can solve some of the problems of limits and centralization:
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The truth is there is no quick money, and certainly not through betting. Most of us would consider it to be a nonexistent thing to go to a job that required paying a subscription with a 42% chance of earning any money that day. Betting should be viewed in the same way. The math is against it and there is too much obscurity among these services.
What to do Instead?
There are many things that you can learn to earn money. It won't necessarily be quick or easy. One thing is to study software and coding and create tools that people need, or offer services such as creating graphics for others. Inputting bets though on an online platform and hitting buttons is however unlikely to get you anywhere.
It's not always easy to live with a lack of money and many things can look tempting, but don't let yourself be taken advantage of others. Use your knowledge and learn more if you need to, and you can always find a way out with time and dedication.
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