• We just launched and are currently in beta. Join us as we build and grow the community.

Why at least one Western team will almost certainly (mathematically) make top 8

hatoceo

Crypto Gaming Pro
H Rep
0
0
0
Rep
0
H Vouches
0
0
0
Vouches
0
Posts
63
Likes
196
Bits
2 MONTHS
2 2 MONTHS OF SERVICE
LEVEL 1 300 XP
In the Swiss format you qualify to Playoffs by going 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 and you get knocked out if you go 0-3, 1-3 or 2-3. Let's assume the most negative scenario for the West: Eastern teams take the two 3-0 slots and the three 3-1 slots and qualify. We'll give Western teams a bit of a break and let GAM get knocked out 0-3 or 1-3 along with four Western teams. This leaves three Western and three Eastern teams at 2-2. If any Western teams draw each other (about 60%) one is guaranteed top 8. In the other case, East vs West, East vs West and East vs West, some of the best Western teams at the tournament get three opportunities to beat some of the weaker Eastern teams at the tournament. We'll be pessimistic and say each Western team only has around a 15% chance of winning their bo3 at 2-2 against the Eastern team. That's still ~40% (1-0.853) for any Western team to win their match-up.
So yeah, in pretty much the worst case (unless GAM goes 2-2 or better), there's still a ~75% (1-0.4*0.6) chance of a Western team making it into top 8.
 

452,292

323,526

323,535

Top